Saturday, February 16, 2008

How McCain May Lose the Nomination


Mike Huckabee is ready to take this campaign to a brokered convention...and the following article explains just how REAL that possibility is...

(February 14, excerpted)

"The John McCain camp informed us yesterday that it is "mathematically impossible" for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. What they won't say is that McCain stands a good chance of losing the nomination as long as Huckabee stays in the race (bold, J. Morris).

"Huckabee only has to win half of the remaining delegates to block McCain from the nomination (bold, J. Morris). And even if he falls a few short of that, many of the delegates in McCain's column will be "unbound" delegates who may in fact vote for anyone they choose on the first ballot.

"This leads one to wonder: If it's really "mathematically impossible," then why does Huckabee want to be in the race? And why does John McCain so badly want him out?

"Simply: Huckabee does not need to "win" in order for McCain to lose!

"...The McCain camp thinks the "mathematically impossible" rhetorical trap will hide a few obvious facts from the voting public who tend to believe the media pundits rather than research how the nomination process actually works. This might in fact backfire as conservatives will resent the propaganda ploy of the "Republicans in name only" who want the election to be declared over before the voters have chosen all the delegates.

"McCain will not be the nominee until he has 1,191 bound delegates pledged to him. John McCain is ahead with an estimated 804 delegates after Tuesday's contests compared to 240 for Mike Huckabee and 14 for Ron Paul.

"Can no one in the media do the math? Or is it that they think the rest of us are too stupid to follow it? There are 774 delegates left to win. If John McCain has exactly 804 delegates (and 18 of these are uncommitted delegates who are still able to change their mind) then he needs an additional 387 to clinch the nomination with 1,191.

"Ironically half of 774 is exactly 387!

"So where is the mathematical impossibility here?

"Huckabee only needs to get 51 percent of the remaining delegates to block McCain! (bold, J. Morris). Considering the results of the last week alone, he is more than able to do this (bold, J. Morris).

"Even though McCain is the delegate leader, unless reaches 1,191 delegates, he cannot win in the first round of the convention. If he loses and it goes to the second round for a vote, he is not guaranteed any of those delegates. Bound or pledged delegates are only committed to the winner of the primary to vote for that candidate in the first round. At the convention, if McCain does not get 51% of the delegate vote on the first round, then they vote again. In the next round, delegates can vote for anyone.

"...Here's another amazing fact. Not all the delegates amassed by McCain are bound to vote for him in the first round! Each state allots both "bound" and "unbound" delegates. (I've been calling them "super delegates" in my other posts, but in reality this term is only used for the Democrat primaries.) The Democrat super delegates are party insiders likely to support the established frontrunner, while the Republican uncommitted delegates are similar, but they are more likely to vote for anyone they choose in the first round.

"McCain currently has 796 bound delegates and 18 unbound delegates. McCain needs 395 bound delegates to reach 1191 of the remaining states.

"Now here's the math (here I've again used my blue, red, purple code):

Likely for McCain
Likely for Huckabee
Likely for either

Wisconsin - 37 bound and 3 unbound
Puerto Rico - 20 bound and 3 unbound
Texas - 137 bound and 3 unbound!
Ohio - 0 bound and 88 unbound!
Rhode Island - 17 bound and 3 unbound
Vermont - 17 bound
Mississippi - 36 bound and 3 unbound
Pennsylvania - 0 bound and 74 unbound!
North Carolina - 69 bound!
Indiana - 27 bound and 30 unbound
Nebraska - 30 bound and 3 unbound
Hawaii - 20 bound
Kentucky - 45 bound
Oregon - 27 bound and 3 unbound
Idaho - 26 bound and 6 unbound
New Mexico - 29 bound and 3 unbound
South Dakota - 24 bound and 3 unbound

"There are 561 bound delegates left. If we are speaking of the number of bound delegates that John McCain must win, then he needs 71% of the remaining 561 to reach 1191 bound delegates.

"Huckabee will probably win Mississippi, Nebraska, Kentucky, and South Dakota. If this happens, then McCain would have to win just about every remaining delegate to be guaranteed enough bound delegates to win the nomination, and that is not likely to happen.

"In fact, if Huckabee can win Texas and North Carolina it becomes really interesting once again. Texas, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nebraska, Kentucky, Idaho and South Dakota have 385 total delegates up for grabs. Just winning these states along with some delegates from close contests in other states could block the nomination from McCain.

"The media pundits lump both bound and unbound delegates in their totals. This is very misleading. Huckabee may block McCain in the first round delegate vote at the convention and then win on a second, third or fourth ballot. Until someone has a majority, the candidates keep striking deals and the delegates keep voting.

"Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.

"So while unlikely, if there is enough dissent in the GOP come summer, McCain could be denied the nomination if he doesn't have enough bound delegates. But even more likely, if he falls short of 1191 in both bound and unbound delegates, then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee or another conservative as the Republican candidate for President of the United States."

Yes, there IS yet hope. Go Mike Huckabee!

1 comment:

Matt Prihoda said...

Yes, but at what price a Huckabee victory? Still, I say...GO MIKE! He's outlasted everyone so far and has nothing to lose by staying in. I just hope that the brokered convention is done in such a way that the party can unite around a candidate.
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