Friday, November 23, 2007

Forbes Forecasts Fred's Fall

An exceptional excerpt...

Huckabee Rising
by John Bruner

Back on Aug. 1, Huckabee was about even with
Ron Paul in the polls, both of them languishing.... Things are different now, as a glance at the graph below reveals.

Huckabee’s rise is significant; a quick statistical test suggests that there’s less than a 1 in 1,000 chance that his recent trend is due to random variation in polls. He has gained, on average, 0.07 percentage points per day since Aug. 1 (that’s a little over half the rate at which Thompson has lost support since Sept. 12, when he may have reached his political zenith on the national level).

At their rates of change since Sept. 12,
Huckabee would surpass Thompson in popularity before the end of the year—on Dec. 13, by my calculations...."

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